Analysis, forecasts and modeling: What’s the point?

Analysis, forecasts and modeling: What’s the point?

financeIn today’s business world, risk, uncertainty and volatility are just par for the course – everyday realities of simply being in business.  Nothing is certain, they say, except death and taxes.  Yet there is a fine art to driving profitable growth in a business, and adapting to existing and emerging risk takes a great deal of experience, information and agility.  While planning and process development may occur at many levels within the organization, it is the FP&A (financial planning and analysis) capability which helps top performing businesses be top performers.

Financial planning and analysis are activities central to enterprise performance management (EPM) and must necessarily extend beyond finance.  Integrating various functional domains in the business (financial, operational and strategic), FP&A should bring data together from the various facets of the business and use the information to help structure and guide the organization toward meeting short-term and long-term goals.  Among the most critical of the duties of FP&A is calculating the financial impact, the monetary effects, of potential business decisions.  Everything in business means money, so there is always an impact to a decision.  With the right information supporting the decision, it is far more likely to have a positive impact and a level of sustainability.

While many CFOs may recognize the importance of performance measurement, planning and forecasting, a great many also believe the process isn’t very effective. The cause is frequently the divide between the various domains in the business and the information systems supporting them.  Operational data are distilled into summary financial information and fed to finance systems, losing much of the underlying intelligence that might be gained from analysis of the details.  Strategic development and planning may overlook certain volatile elements in the market, or may base successful outcomes on an expectation that conditions within the business will not change.  Finding ways to integrate the data from the respective domains into a comprehensive model is essential to developing a better and more robust forecasting and scenario-playing capability.  With the right information, analytics may be applied to all facets of management decision-making, anticipating and shaping business outcomes far more effectively than could be done without the insight.

Small business owners may believe that things like “predictive modeling” and “enterprise performance management” aren’t things they need to worry about, but the small business could use this information just as beneficially as a larger enterprise – perhaps even more as the insight could be the key to small business survival and growth.

Using analytics, the owner is able to adjust and re-align strategy in real-time to keep on the right path and goals clearly in sight.  Analytics can also help a business better understand what really drives revenue, working capital and profits.  Analytics can even help managers align compensation and strategy with business objectives, preventing compensation issues from outpacing business benefit.

There is a cost to growing a business, and some strategies might be more sustainable than others.  Time will tell, but it is great if the business owner has some business intelligence that might indicate what’s going to happen before it actually does.

Make Sense?

J

 

Accounting, Technology and Small Business – The Best of 2013 from CooperMann

Accounting, Technology and Small Business – The Best of 2013 from CooperMann

cooper-mann-top-20It has been an eventful year, hasn’t it?  With the NSA lurking about collecting data, innovative new approaches to information and identity theft emerging almost daily, and complete turmoil in the IT services industry challenging trusted sales and distribution models, most of us have simply become numb to the noise.  Information technology is evolving at an increasingly rapid pace and the way people and businesses interact with and use technology is being forced to change along with it.  It’s starting to become almost, weirdly, natural.

Much of this change can be attributed to “The Cloud”, which is not a thing or a place.  Cloud has become the term which applies to just about anything having anything to do with the Internet.  For technology “purists”, cloud means something fairly specific, but for normal people (no offense to the nerds and geeks, but you know what I mean), cloud applies to pretty much anything accessible via the Internet.  Photos back up to “the cloud”; music gets stored in “the cloud”, websites are hosted in “the cloud”; businesses run their applications in “the cloud”, and you can do darned near anything you need (or want) to with a phone.  The cloud could be some guy’s server in his basement, or it could be a sophisticated network of systems housed in secure facilities around the globe.  They both qualify, sort of.  The point is that mobility, Internet services, subscription access to technology, and social computing are changing how people view technology – resulting with changes not simply in how IT is purchased, but in how IT is used and applied to daily life.

There are, however, some things that do not change even if the working environment does.  The accounting profession, for example, is undergoing a great deal of change, and much of it fueled by the advancements in technology and social computing.  But accounting fundamentals – the “truth of debits and credits” and the good old accounting equation – remain.  The basics of running a business are also unchanged, even as methods of doing business evolve and globalization of markets continues.  Business fundamentals – fiscal responsibility, cash and growth management, and focus on value and sustainability – are as necessary now as every before.

With all this change and IT “advancement”, there have certainly been impacts to how and where we work.  But the more things change, the more they remain the same.  Good business generates goodwill and more business – that doesn’t change – and bad news still tends to spread faster than good news (much faster, given social platforms that are designed to spread the word far and wide).  And when it comes down to the fundamentals – the basic and essential foundations supporting building, operating, and accounting for business – we generally find that they remain constant even as the environment in which they exist experiences change.

jmbunnyfeetMake Sense?

J

Here are the top 20 ranked posts for 2013 from CooperMann.com

  1. The 2 Most Popular Models for Working with QuickBooks Desktop Editions and the Cloud
  2. Accounting Professionals, You’re right – your clients don’t care about the numbers.
  3. Remote access to client bookkeeping comes in many forms because clients come in many forms
  4. What Small Businesses Need To Know about QuickBooks and the Cloud
  5. Intuit Introduces Changes to Authorized Commercial Host for QuickBooks Program, Introduces QuickBooks Enterprise Rental Licensing
  6. Managed Applications, Cloudpaging, and a New Flavor of Hosted QuickBooks
  7. The Language of Accounting: Disconnect between Accountants and Bookkeepers
  8. Why Accountants and Bookkeepers Use the Cloud
  9. Small Business Owner to Accountant: Make Accounting Valuable to ME
  10. Changing How We See Software: QuickBooks 2013 interface frustrates power users
  11. Bookkeeping and Benchmarks – Getting the Numbers Right
  12. In Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Information Technology: The Value of Outsourcing
  13. Hosting All My Applications in the Cloud
  14. 4 Rules of Thumb for Business Success
  15. Intuit Hosting Program for QuickBooks Website Goes Live
  16. Re-defining the role of the accountant, or going back to the good old days?
  17. Cloud Computing for Small Business: It’s All About 3 Apps
  18. The Collaborative Online Model for Small Business Accounting Professionals
  19. QuickBooks Hosting: New Program Tier Announced for QuickBooks Hosting Providers
  20. 4 Rules for Building Service Customer Loyalty
Posts by category – with Accounting Professionals, QuickBooks Hosting, QuickBooks Software, and Small Business being the top categories with ranking articles.
ACCOUNTING PROFESSIONALS
Small Business Owner to Accountant: Make Accounting Valuable to ME
Accounting Professionals, You’re right – your clients don’t care about the numbers.
The Language of Accounting: Disconnect between Accountants and Bookkeepers
Why Accountants and Bookkeepers Use the Cloud
Bookkeeping and Benchmarks – Getting the Numbers Right
In Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Information Technology: The Value of Outsourcing
Re-defining the role of the accountant, or going back to the good old days?
The Collaborative Online Model for Small Business Accounting Professionals
Remote access to client bookkeeping comes in many forms because clients come in many forms
QUICKBOOKS AND BUSINESS APPLICATION HOSTING
The 2 Most Popular Models for Working with QuickBooks Desktop Editions and the Cloud
What Small Businesses Need To Know about QuickBooks and the Cloud
Intuit Introduces Changes to Authorized Commercial Host for QuickBooks Program, Introduces QuickBooks Enterprise Rental Licensing
Hosting All My Applications in the Cloud
Intuit Hosting Program for QuickBooks Website Goes Live
Cloud Computing for Small Business: It’s All About 3 Apps
QuickBooks Hosting: New Program Tier Announced for QuickBooks Hosting Providers
Managed Applications, Cloudpaging, and a New Flavor of Hosted QuickBooks
QUICKBOOKS SOFTWARE
Changing How We See Software: QuickBooks 2013 interface frustrates power users
SMALL BUSINESS
4 Rules of Thumb for Business Success
4 Rules for Building Service Customer Loyalty

4 Rules of Thumb for Fiscally Fit Business

4 Rules of Thumb for Fiscally Fit Business

4-rules-of-thumbMost folks who start a new business go in to it with a rather naïve belief that a good idea, product, service and/or group of people can be successful just because their idea, product, service or people are good.  Unfortunately, that isn’t’t the reality of starting up and running a business.  Regardless of how great and innovative the idea is, the business only works if it is sustainable and profitable.  Otherwise, it was just a great idea.  For many entrepreneurs, developing an understanding of the financial underpinnings of running a company isn’t the most exciting of ideas.  The compulsion is to outsource the responsibility to someone else like an accountant or financial advisor. While I completely and utterly agree that every business owner should work closely with their accounting professional and financial advisor, I also know that those very same business owners will get more value from their advisors if they have a common language to speak (business finance) and are working toward a common goal.  The goal is fiscal fitness – the creation of a sustainable and profitable business. Just as physical fitness supports a healthy body, fiscal fitness supports a healthy business.

The successful business operating in this economy adheres closely to 4 main beliefs, rules of thumb perhaps, relating to fiscal management and fitness and which are generally communicated in detail using the language of business finance.

Rule 1. Plan before you start.  Then plan some more.  Starting a business isn’t like going to college; you’re supposed to know what you’re going to do BEFORE you start up rather than paying to explore the options.  It is also very important to recognize that the plan may require some adjustments as you go along (“No plan survives contact with the enemy”), taking care to not equate focus with intractability.  This plan should also include the “exit strategy”, which is really a plan for what the owner wants to ultimately get out of the effort.  It could be a plan to sell out for gobs of money, to leave a legacy for the children, or maybe just to have an awesome quality of life and do what they love at the same time.  Knowing what it will take to get in, get it done, and get out the way you want is all part of the plan.

Rule 2. Keep a close eye on the numbers.  No, not all of them, but the really important ones.  Some of these numbers have to do with the relationships between price, volume and cost.  This is the stuff a business owner needs to know like the back of their hand – hairs and all.  Not every business will focus on the same key numbers (mostly, but there are certainly variations), but every business owner should know what to look for.  And they should be looking very frequently so things don’t get out of whack before corrections can be made.

Rule 3. Manage the cash, manage the growth, and know how one impacts the other. Cash flow and growth are priorities number 1 and 1 in business but they aren’t the same thing.  Consider that reducing prices (and profits) to get more sales may work as long as the volume of sales supports the effort and generates the cash.  Without the extra sales revenue to rely on, reducing profits could result in devastation (maybe sticking with the prices the way they are and not pushing for fast growth is a better idea).

Rule 4 If you must borrow, be informed and do it smartly.  There are a lot of different options for borrowing money for the business, just as there are a lot of different reasons to do it.  There is a great deal of research available which describes the benefits of borrowers being educated in basic financial literacy, with better financial decision-making being among those benefits.  Looking for financing is kind of like choosing between the apple and the candy bar: one may promote the fitness you’re looking for while the other does not (but it looks sweet!).  It’s nice to have the foundation to support knowing which one you should choose.

Building and maintaining a fit business requires an understanding of how the business works – how and why it makes and spends money, what makes it profitable and what it takes to create and support growth.  While outside advisors may be available to help, the best performance is achieved when the business owner masters the essential skills required to run and grow a fiscally fit and sustainable business.

Joanie Mann Bunny Feet

Make Sense?

J

Measure, Manage and Succeed.  It’s all about knowing how to speak the language of finance

Lease Accounting Rules, Small Business Financing and the Cloud

Lease Accounting Rules, Small Business Financing and the Cloud

Cloud Service FinancingThere are changes in lease accounting rules that may have broader implications than expected.  Lease accounting, or accounting in general, isn’t exactly an exciting topic and generally doesn’t come up in conversation.  But the changes to how business equipment and other leases are accounted for and reported could become additional fuel for cloud adoption by businesses – small business looking for financing, in particular (= lots).

First, what does accounting for leases have to do with small business financing?  Quite a bit, actually.  The balance sheet is one of the things a lender will look at when considering a small business for a loan, and if lease obligations and leased assets are on the balance sheet, they’re going to want to talk about them.  They’ll also possibly look at asset turnover – trying to understand exactly how much in assets it takes for the business to make “x” amount of money.  Banks and other lenders like to know they’re loaning money to a business that is going to pay it back, and in a reasonable amount of time.  They will limit their risk potential as much as possible, and they do it by looking through the financials and related information.

Business value is generating sustainable cash flow.  If you run a highly efficient business, the more top-line growth you deliver, the more cash flow you enjoy.  For capital-intensive businesses (either through the need for capital equipment or working capital), growth can actually lower your cash flow and diminish your business value.   To understand which side of the equation your business resides, accounting professionals will often look at the return on total assets calculated over time, dividing the operating income for each period from the P&L by the appropriate period values of total assets from the balance sheet.  The resulting metric describes how efficiently assets are applied to creating earnings.

https://coopermann.com/2013/01/22/why-is-asset-management-important-to-a-business/

This can be a difficult conversation with the banker for new businesses, as they have little to go on in terms of historic data to show the bank.  The P&L (profit & loss, or Income Statement) only reflects current business performance, not what it can do in a few months or years.  By putting leases on the balance sheet, businesses are now reflecting a more realistic view of things, but are also introducing additional items for scrutiny and question by the lender; things which are often described more in terms of business strategy than in proveable numbers.  That makes getting the loan just that much tougher.

Previous rules relating to business leases didn’t necessarily require that the business recognize operating leases (leased items and lease obligations) as assets and liabilities on the balance sheet.  This is among the reasons why businesses lease equipment – they are able to obtain the item without having to record a single large capital expenditure.

The FASB changes demand that accounting for leases should be standardized, forcing the lesees to report all leases on the balance sheet, reflecting both the benefit (asset) and the cost (liability) associated with the lease.  Stated in a press release on the subject: “The new guidance responds to requests from investors and other financial statement users for a more faithful representation of an organization’s leasing activities,” stated FASB Chair Russell G. Golden. “It ends what the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and other stakeholders have identified as one of the largest forms of off-balance sheet accounting, while requiring more disclosures related to leasing transactions.”

“a capital lease creates a tangible right where you own the equipment; the liability in a capital lease is true debt…”

http://www3.cfo.com/article/2013/9/gaap-ifrs_lease-accounting-elfa-fasb-iasb-global-convergence

By understanding how these changes in accounting for leases impact businesses, cloud solutions providers now have an additional lever to use with prospective customers: leasing equipment isn’t necessarily the way to keep capex off the balance sheet any longer.

One of the big value propositions offered by many cloud solution providers is that their service is paid for as a monthly business expense rather than a large up-front capital expenditure and investment.  Businesses are able to use the solution and benefit from it without actually “buying” anything, it’s just subscribed instead.  All of this is really a fancy way of saying “renting but not owning”, but the result to financial reporting is the same: it’s not on the balance sheet, it’s on the P&L in chewy chunks.  This used to be a preferred treatment for leases, too, allowing businesses to reflect the usage and payment in little parts rather than a big one.  It was “gentler” on the balance sheet.  But leasing equipment and software for on-premises use won’t be competing with the cloud and subscription service any longer, closing off the “impact to the balance sheet” conversation entirely and making cloud IT just that much more important to small businesses who need cash to fuel business growth.

Make Sense?

Joanie Mann Bunny FeetJ

Financial Literacy and Small Business Success

Businesses and individuals alike must make complicated financial decisions throughout their lives.  Sadly, the volumes of research which explore aspects of financial and debt “literacy” among individuals and small business owners reflects that a growing portion of the population lacks the understanding to make these decisions.  Questions surrounding this issue often focus on the educational aspects, and the positive impacts which might be created through greater levels of understanding of accounting fundamentals and the basics of financial management.  Particularly in smaller businesses, where there is a much closer relationship between business and personal finances, understanding even basic financial concepts is likely to lead to “better financial decisions and household well-being”.

a strong relationship between debt literacy and both financial experiences and debt loads[1]

Because many educational offerings tie to specific training approaches and methodologies, it becomes very difficult to measure the usefulness of the skills developed separately from the effectiveness of the training methodology.   Trainers may employ specific devices or tools which facilitate their delivery, and often times these tools become more of a focus than the actual educational content.  On the other hand, a program might provide a great deal of information in a fairly raw form, yet this information is unlikely to deliver a useful result if the participants do not understand it or cannot grasp the concepts introduced. The challenge is not only with providing the education, but finding a balance with the information and the outcomes; understanding how basic the training might be and still provide a measurable, beneficial impact.

In the study Keeping it Simple: Financial Literacy and Rules of Thumb, the authors discuss the benefits of teaching small business owners a series of fundamental “rules of thumb” for management of the business, rather than delving into the complexities of comprehensive business accounting and finance.  Teaching participants about the basics of double entry bookkeeping, cash management and investing, and then coupling that information with instruction on essential processes to follow resulted in significant improvements in financial management and improved the accuracy and consistency of reported data.

the rule-of-thumb training changes actual business management practices[2]

 

Outcomes show consistently positive when a simpler approach to developing “financial literacy” is provided to small business owners, and particularly when the training and content is oriented towards the characteristics of the participants.   The highest level of result was achieved with business owners with a low level of financial “sophistication”, with a limited interest in financial or accounting training, and with limited baseline business practice structure.  These were the participants who were found to be most likely to implement what they learned in the “rule of thumb” training.

The conclusion drawn from these discussions is that financial education and basic accounting training can become a key factor in helping business owners not only account and report better for their businesses, but provides an essential foundation for understanding how to grow the business and create profitability.   Accounting professionals working with small business clients should recognize that an effort to provide a level of education to clients is likely to not only help those clients make better business (and personal) financial decisions, it will also increase the chances that the client will keep better books and provide the accounting professional with more consistently useful information to work from.

After all, the goal of the accounting professional working with small business clients is to help those small businesses become successful businesses, isn’t it?

Joanie Mann Bunny FeetMake Sense?

J


[1] http://www.nber.org/papers/w14808.pdf

Debt Literacy, Financial Experiences, and Overindebtedness | Annamaria Lusardi and Peter Tufano| NBER Working Paper No. 14808|March 2009

[2] https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/kis-dfs-march2013_0.pdf | Keeping it Simple: Financial Literacy and Rules of Thumb | By ALEJANDRO DREXLER, GREG FISCHER, AND ANTOINETTE SCHOAR

An Educated Guess is Not a Crystal Ball – Forecasting the Future

An Educated Guess is Not a Crystal Ball – Forecasting the Future

If every business could peer into the future to see how they will perform, there wouldn’t be a need for historical data and performance benchmarking.  Unfortunately, nobody has a crystal ball, so it becomes necessary for business owners to plan for the future.  By making educated guesses with valuable information gleaned from the past, companies can establish the path they will take to growth and profitability.

Accounting professionals are great at producing accurate historical financial performance information.  The value in this historical data is only partially found in the periodic reports and financial statements generated.  The primary value, the insight delivered from this historical data, is the information it reveals about the business operation over time.  It is from this historical data that certain trends are identified, providing a basis for making the educated guesses necessary to learn how the business will look in the future.

Forecasting is very important for businesses, as it provides the framework for laying out your expectations for the business.  In essence, it is a way to (hopefully) predict what your business finances will look like in the future based on forecasted growth.  And, armed with the forecast, you can now more confidently build a reasonable plan to reach your stated business goals.  While there are myriad approaches to creating a business forecast, it makes sense to simplify the process and focus on the area you likely spend most of your time attending to: sales.  Use your sales goals and projections as the basis for establishing a forecast, setting realistic goals for the current year and for a few years after that.  Once you’ve forecast the new sales goals, you can more easily appreciate what it will take in personnel and other costs to support that growth.

Recognizing that the forecast is simply an educated guess, it is important to regularly compare actual performance to the forecast to see if the business is on the right path to reach the established goal.  If sales are not growing as projected, then the business may need to make adjustments in terms of personnel hiring and other plans to ensure that costs don’t outpace sales.  Without a path to follow, business owners will not necessarily know if the operation is “on track”, as there is no track to be on – there is nothing to measure success against.  Certainly, profitability is the goal, but it is a matter of degrees of success, and the business will not know whether it is being as successful and profitable as it might be.

Accounting professionals should help their clients create realistic forecasts, along with organizing the information and formulating a plan for the business owner to follow.  On an ongoing basis, the accounting professional’s involvement delivers continued value by helping the business owner recognize and respond to changes in the business, adjusting plans as necessary to keep the business on the right path.  And, no crystal ball is required.

Make Sense?

J

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