An Educated Guess is Not a Crystal Ball – Forecasting the Future

An Educated Guess is Not a Crystal Ball – Forecasting the Future

If every business could peer into the future to see how they will perform, there wouldn’t be a need for historical data and performance benchmarking.  Unfortunately, nobody has a crystal ball, so it becomes necessary for business owners to plan for the future.  By making educated guesses with valuable information gleaned from the past, companies can establish the path they will take to growth and profitability.

Accounting professionals are great at producing accurate historical financial performance information.  The value in this historical data is only partially found in the periodic reports and financial statements generated.  The primary value, the insight delivered from this historical data, is the information it reveals about the business operation over time.  It is from this historical data that certain trends are identified, providing a basis for making the educated guesses necessary to learn how the business will look in the future.

Forecasting is very important for businesses, as it provides the framework for laying out your expectations for the business.  In essence, it is a way to (hopefully) predict what your business finances will look like in the future based on forecasted growth.  And, armed with the forecast, you can now more confidently build a reasonable plan to reach your stated business goals.  While there are myriad approaches to creating a business forecast, it makes sense to simplify the process and focus on the area you likely spend most of your time attending to: sales.  Use your sales goals and projections as the basis for establishing a forecast, setting realistic goals for the current year and for a few years after that.  Once you’ve forecast the new sales goals, you can more easily appreciate what it will take in personnel and other costs to support that growth.

Recognizing that the forecast is simply an educated guess, it is important to regularly compare actual performance to the forecast to see if the business is on the right path to reach the established goal.  If sales are not growing as projected, then the business may need to make adjustments in terms of personnel hiring and other plans to ensure that costs don’t outpace sales.  Without a path to follow, business owners will not necessarily know if the operation is “on track”, as there is no track to be on – there is nothing to measure success against.  Certainly, profitability is the goal, but it is a matter of degrees of success, and the business will not know whether it is being as successful and profitable as it might be.

Accounting professionals should help their clients create realistic forecasts, along with organizing the information and formulating a plan for the business owner to follow.  On an ongoing basis, the accounting professional’s involvement delivers continued value by helping the business owner recognize and respond to changes in the business, adjusting plans as necessary to keep the business on the right path.  And, no crystal ball is required.

Make Sense?

J

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Licensing and Virtualization: Changes to SPLA May Impact Provider Cost Models

Licensing and Virtualization: Changes to SPLA May Impact Provider Cost Models

In many application hosting environments, machine and operating system virtualization provide the only realistic means for delivering services for applications which were never designed for high-volume multitenant implementation.  In these environments, providers rely upon technologies from Microsoft, VMWare, Citrix and Parallels to provide containment of application environments, creating frameworks where single-tenant applications and hosted infrastructure may be affordably offered to subscribing business customers.  Because many of the applications being hosted today do not conform to the various standards which exist for high-volume and multitenant delivery, providers have taken what we’ll call “creative” approaches to virtualized application and environment implementations.  Under certain licensing models, these approaches may be sustainable for a period of time.  However, recent adjustments to core licensing components and pricing from key providers, Microsoft in particular, may significantly impact the cost of service delivery for providers with less than optimized infrastructure.

One of the notable changes in the Microsoft SPLA (Service Provider License Agreement) is the treatment of Windows and RDS users in the “desktop as a service” model.  In previous editions of the SPLA, as was offered with 2008/R2 licensing and prior, providers could select from two different models when implementing service: the SAL-only (server access license) model, which applies on a per concurrent user basis to the infrastructure, or the PL (processor license) model, which applied to the processors installed in systems with Windows operating system and SQL server instances.

For high-density and multitenant environments, the per-processor approach is far more cost efficient to implement, as it allows the provider to create a scale economy with the infrastructure, leveraging hardware and resources across many subscribing tenants.  Reducing the cost model to a base infrastructure rate also introduced predictability and stability in recurring costs for the provider, even as subscriber numbers and subscription revenues increase.

The problem reveals itself with the providers deploying “not optimal” infrastructure, whether by design or due to legacy application requirements.  These providers rely upon the per-user pricing models to support access and usage to the infrastructure, largely due to the fact that the infrastructure has grown “out” and not “up”.  Deploying more servers and more VM instances allowed these providers to present legacy applications as part of a managed application service model.  While the management of the infrastructure is greatly complicated with this approach, it is often the only means to addressing the needs of popular “noncompliant” applications (such as Intuit QuickBooks and Sage 50).  With the SPLA changes introduced for Windows 2012, these service providers may be in a bit of a tough spot.  You see, the per-user option for licensing Windows server access is gone, and only the per-processor licensing model remains.

Microsoft is wisely addressing the needs of the market which is demanding more capability and affordability in terms of cloud-based access to applications.  These pricing adjustments are necessary to support the needs of service providers who are increasingly stretching their infrastructure investments to deliver higher user density at a lower per-user cost.  Further, application developers seeking new markets and delivery models are taking advantage of these virtualization approaches, creating hybrid and hosted solution models around their legacy application products.  The licensing approaches which support these higher density application deliveries introduce options for developers to optimize their applications for the hosted model rather than dealing with immediate comprehensive re-development (which isn’t an option for many ISVs – independent software vendors).

The IT world is forging ahead with cloud computing, high-capacity infrastructure, and heavily virtualized environments supporting larger numbers of users.  Software developers must take heed, and embrace these deployment models (or at least adjust to the point of supporting them) in order to have a chance at keeping pace in the anytime, anywhere world of today’s business technology.  This means working collaboratively with hosting service and infrastructure providers, crafting services which have the required scalability and incorporating a deployment model agile enough to take advantage of infrastructure licensing benefits as they are introduced.

What was a serviceable pricing structure yesterday may be an anchor holding your profitability down tomorrow.  Service providers – make sure you’re keeping a close eye on licensing requirements and delivery cost models, and consider that building up your infrastructure capability is often more cost efficient than building out.

Make sense?

J

BuildingUP.biz  |  CooperMann.com

Licensing for Hosted Application Services: Why it costs what it costs

read more about the confusion over hosted licensing on The Progressive Accountant http://www.theprogressiveaccountant.com/tech-tips/confusion-over-hosted-licensing.html

Trends Impacting Every Business | Forbes.com

Trends Impacting Every Business | Forbes.com

You think good accounting isn’t a big factor in getting business credit?  Consider this tidbit from Intuit’s CEO Brad Smith, from a recent article on Forbes.com:

Two-thirds of Intuit’s QuickBooks customers were declined a loan due to poor FICO scores and other credit measurements. In the Loan Finder trial, a business could opt-in to allow banks to use QuickBooks data to evaluate if a prospect was a credit risk. As a result of this additional data, the banks provided several hundred new loans with an average of $10 million dollars.

Accounting professionals… isn’t this something you could be helping your clients with?

Read more about helping make small businesses bankable 

Make Sense?

J

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Using Structured Workflow to Manage Offline Clients | Intuit Accountants News Central

Using Structured Workflow to Manage Offline Clients | Intuit Accountants News Central

The demand today requires that accounting professionals be more attentive and, yes, aggressive, in terms of “attacking” a regular flow of processing client information rather than batching it at period end. This drives a great need to structure and organize the work, and workflow, so that the repetitive and regularly performed processes may be streamlined and made easier to manage on an ongoing regular basis. It is no longer good enough to wait for clients to deliver the information and request the resultant reports. We must proactively request and gather the required information for processing, especially with offline clients, in order to get the work done more frequently.

Read the entire article at Intuit Accountants News Central

J

Dashboard Reporting Tools: Gauging Accounting Relevance

Dashboard Reporting Tools: Gauging Accounting Relevance

Dashboard reporting tools can be of great assistance when accounting professionals want to help their clients understand how the business is performing.  In most cases, these tools do a good job of showing owners the details of the profit and loss or cash flow reports, presenting the information in a way that non-accountants can understand.  Many accounting professionals have turned to these reporting solutions to increase the value of the accounting work performed.  After all, if the client can’t really understand the P&L and the Balance Sheet, then the reports won’t do them much good.

While simplified graphical reporting solutions are beneficial to the business, providing more insight into historical business performance, they don’t do much for the client on a daily basis if the accounting data isn’t up to date.  Accounting professionals should recognize that these dynamic reporting solutions, tools which can provide business owners with real-time information on business activities and performance, can go a long way towards increasing the relevance of the accountant’s involvement in the client business.

Accounting professionals today are fighting battles on several fronts, and remaining relevant to the client is one of them.   This isn’t too surprising, given that many accounting professionals see their clients only at year-end when the tax return needs to be prepared.  In some cases, the business owner doesn’t even remember the name of their accountant – they just know they went there last year at tax time.  This arm’s length relationship between the accounting professional and the business clients leaves a lot of opportunity on the table for both parties.

When accounting professionals aren’t closely involved with their clients, they risk losing the client to a more attentive, consultative professional.  Many firms believe that the low profitability of bookkeeping and processing daily work for clients means that they should focus only on “higher level” opportunities, yet business owners will tend to seek advice from those who work with them on a regular basis, and who understand the issues that challenge growth and profitability.

Accounting professionals who recognize the value of providing regular bookkeeping services to their clients also recognize the value of working closer with the client, providing useful and actionable information rather than historic data long after-the-fact.  These professionals are more likely to reap the rewards of “higher level” engagement opportunities from the client, because they help to identify the need and are able to support it with real data and insight earned through regular involvement with the business.

Make Sense?

J

  • Read more about how accountants need business intelligence, too
  • Read more about how there’s no fear and loathing in accounting
  • Read more about Data Warriors: accounting in the cloud